The Epstein Files: A Rift in Trump’s Base

The Epstein files have ignited a battle between President Trump and his most loyal supporters, as questions about transparency and justice remain unanswered.

The fate of the Jeffrey Epstein files has been a simmering source of tension between the Trump Administration and its most loyal voters for several months now. That tension exploded into the open this past week, after Attorney General Pam Bondi reported that there is, in fact, no client list for the notorious child trafficker. At a televised Cabinet meeting, President Trump then rebuffed a reporter who asked about the files with a dismissive “Are we still talking about that creep?” The president is now squarely at odds with his own voting base who believes the Epstein crimes are continuing to be covered up.

We’ll break this down by first putting the actions of the young Administration in context, and then consider several scenarios , so we can all assess for ourselves what seems most plausible.

THE BREWING STORM

When Trump was elected, there was a lot of anticipation over the release of the files and finding which powerful people—both inside the government and out—were being compromised by being a client of the man who trafficked minor children and then mysteriously “committed suicide” while in a max security federal prison. But it’s been non-stop disappointment…

*First, Bondi invited several prominent Trump-friendly media influencers and gave them a binder which was supposed to have the files in them. The influencers were all photographed leaving the White House. But it turned out the information inside the binders was already public information. Nothing new.

*FBI director Kash Patel, a hero to the Trump base for his role in dismantling the Russia collusion hoax in the first Trump term, said multiple times that yes, Epstein had committed suicide. So did Patel’s chief lieutenant Dan Bongino, another hero to the base.

*Then we get to the events of the past week, with Bondi insisting that not only did Epstein really commit suicide, and there is no client list, followed by Trump’s attempt to shut down any further questions.

Given that those of us who believe there’s damning information in the files also tend to strongly support the president, Patel and Bongino (Bondi just became known to many of us when she was nominated for AG), is it possible that maybe there really is nothing to see here? I don’t think so.

Here’s the problem with what the Administration is trying to sell us:

• Bondi already said there were files—a couple of months ago, she went on Fox to tell the world that the files were on her desk and she was reviewing them.

• Patel also confirmed that there were files and said the only reason it was taking longer than expected to release was for the sake of making sure the names of victims were redacted.

• Bongino went on Fox and said there was video that would confirm Epstein had committed suicide. But the video released did nothing of the sort. In fact, there was a missing minute, right before midnight. Which Bondi then said was standard on all of the prison video. Say what?

• Since Trump took office, Virginia Giuffre, the most visible and vocal Epstein victim, also “committed suicide.”

• Then you get Trump’s attempt to close down the question. We’ve all seen him do this more than once, but this one was different. His “are we still talking about this?” line was weird, as though he wasn’t asked about the files throughout the campaign. It’s true that the files weren’t a signature issue for him, but they were for a lot of his voters—especially younger voters, where distrust of the government is highest. He promised to release them. And he has a well-documented track record of promise-keeping.

• Furthermore, Trump then said the question itself was “a desecration” coming in light of the Texas flooding victims. It was another tactic you rarely (if ever) see him use. Normally when Trump doesn’t like a question he just tells the reporter they’re a terrible person, stupid, and their network is failing. You don’t see this fake righteousness used as a means of deflection. But we did in this instance.

• Finally, the most obvious question of all. If there is no client list, why is Epstein’s partner, Ghislaine Maxwell, in prison? We’re being asked to believe that she’s in jail for trafficking children to…no one?

What the ultimate truth is remains to be seen (hence, the zeal for release of the files), but this display of attempting to brush it off is insulting. This is a clear coverup, one that had already been going on, and is continuing.

Media influencers normally in Trump’s camp are pushing back. Some are delicate, some are openly furious. But the common theme is the same—we aren’t buying this.

Bondi is the one taking the brunt of the heat, as both the Attorney General and also the one with the least amount of loyalty credit built up with the Trump voting base. Patel and Bongino are catching increasing heat and their own credit is being drawn down rapidly.

But can we all be real here? Who is the president of the United States? After the events of the Cabinet meeting and the exchange with the reporter, it’s clear that whatever is going on is being driven by Trump himself.

The question then is why? The president is well-attuned to his voting base. He had to know the reaction this would get. Why is he continuing to cover up what’s in the files?

There are several possible scenarios I can think of. Let’s go through them all one by one. We’ll start with those that are least favorable to the president and continue gradually to scenarios that would paint his actions in a less egregious, even favorable light…

SCENARIO 1: TRUMP IS IN THE FILES

This is the fondest dream of the most fervent Trump-haters, one they throw out by posting an old photo of Trump and Epstein together at a social event. But even if you don’t have the same strongly favorable view of the president that we do in this space, this scenario is still highly unlikely. Here’s why:

• In the first place, while the photo makes for good social media clickbait, it really tells us nothing. Epstein Island wasn’t that far from Mar-a-Lago. Trump and Epstein were in the same general social circles. That they would have interacted was quite logical.

• Moreover, even if Trump’s name is in the files—which, given what is noted in the previous point, is quite likely, that’s very different from there being actual incriminating information. A lot of people knew Jeffrey Epstein and were in his sphere. It’s a minority of them that became clients of the notorious pedophile.

• Finally—and the most obvious point—would be this: The powerful forces of the bureaucracy, corporate media and others have been trying desperately to stop Trump since he came down the escalator on June 27, 2015 to announce he was running for president. They have resorted to the following (and this is a short list):

--Falsely accused him of colluding with Russia to win in 2016, tearing the country apart in the process with a multi-year investigation.
--Locked down the country--or at least the key states that had Democratic governors-- in 2020 under the pretense that it was necessary to destroy the economy (and with it Trump’s re-election chances) over a virus that had a 99.5 percent survival rate.
--As a byproduct of the above, turned the country’s election systems into the joke of the Western world with its drop boxes and mail-in provisions.
--Completely bastardized the country’s legal system to put him through four trials simultaneously, and needing to gin up a concocted legal theory to get a conviction in New York.

Did I forget anything? Oh yes, they tried to murder him at least twice, once on national television.

We are supposed to believe that Trump’s enemies opted for the path of doing all of the above (and more) when all they had to do was release the files with his name on it, while redacting the names of those they wanted to protect? Look, until the files are released, anything’s possible, but this is just wildly unlikely.

SCENARIO 2: TRUMP IS PROTECTING FRIENDS IN THE FILES

Trump has a long history in the corrupt worlds of Wall Street, Hollywood, and now politics. That he would have friends who would be incriminated in the Epstein files is reasonable to suggest.

Here’s the problem that this theory still runs into. The failure to release the files, as noted above, is a significant political liability for Trump. He’s not gaining support from anyone while antagonizing the people who are most loyal to him. And he has to know it. Anyone he would do this for would need to be an exceptionally good friend, not just someone you’ve enjoyed chatting with.

Furthermore, this person(s) not only has to be uber-close to Trump, they would also have to be far enough away that his enemies wouldn’t have already dumped the files under the logic of Scenario 1. For example, if one of his sons were in the files, the Trump-haters could have dumped the same files ten years ago and likely gotten the same effect as if he himself were the one in there—finishing him as a political force.

The voters that are prone to believe the worst about Trump can’t be begrudged if they want to subscribe to this theory—particularly since the president himself can end the speculation by releasing the files. But what are the odds there’s someone in the files who threads that perfect needle—close enough for Trump to consider it worth the risk of covering it up, while distant enough that the files weren’t already dumped for the express purpose of destroying him? It just seems like a big longshot.

SCENARIO 3: TRUMP IS TRADING THE FILES FOR A BIGGER POLICY OBJECTIVE

To understand this scenario, you have to understand what people who have studied the Epstein case closely believe—that the client is list something more than just a list of celebrities and politicians who would face criminal charges. It’s believed that the list is being used as blackmail material—and that the primary driving force behind the blackmail is Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, with help from our own CIA and MI6, which is British intelligence.

Under this scenario, Trump would be agreeing to cover up the files and the scandal it would cause Mossad in exchange for Israeli cooperation in securing peace across the Middle East.

This theory does explain a lot. For starters, it would explain why Israel always seems to get whatever it wants out of the U.S. government regardless of who is in office. If Ukraine has their money laundering as a means of control, Israel (at least under this scenario) has Mossad using Epstein as basically an entrapment lure—get powerful people incriminated, then promise them their crimes will stay covered up, so long as they do what they’re told.

There’s also the matter of timing—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanhyu was in Washington this past week, having dinner at the White House, at the same time Trump was trying to squelch the Epstein files. Coincidence? It’s a pretty big one. Moreover, while many Trump-friendly media influencers are rebelling right now, one prominent figure is noticeably on board with the Administration’s current line—Ben Shapiro of The Daily Wire, as pro-Israeli as it gets.

What further makes this scenario plausible is that it seems to neatly fit Trump, both his strengths and his flaws. On the positive side, he clearly has a genuine desire to bring peace and that he wants his second term judged primarily on that basis. He rightly sees the Abraham Accords that did so much in the Middle East, as a signature achievement of his first term, and he wants to build on that as he picks up the mess that the intervening four years created.

But this also goes to the adage about the road to Hell being paved with good intentions. Trafficked children are the victims in the Epstein case, and they need justice. If this scenario is true, it means justice for these children is being traded for Middle East peace.

That’s not an acceptable trade. While we should be careful about presuming what God thinks, I don’t feel like I’m out on some major theological limb in saying that I don’t think He’ll let a “peace” built on the backs of trafficked children stand for any length of time or be really meaningful.

While we have one more scenario to cover—one that is more favorable for Trump, Scenario 3 is where I’m at. I think it acknowledges what all but the most fervent Trump-haters know—that the man actually does have some good qualities. And it also acknowledges that he can be susceptible to buying into some very bad ideas. Particularly given that “the Noble Lie” is uniquely tempting and it’s unlikely there’s anyone in his ear (at least any human source) telling him not to go down that path.

SCENARIO 4: THIS IS A GRAND STRATEGIC PLAY

If you’re on social media, you know there are the Trump True Believers. It’s not just that they seem to believe he never makes a mistake. It goes beyond that. In this world, everything Trump does is the work of a Grand Master on a chess board. Things that seem like mistakes are just special operations, designed to draw out his enemies. Bad appointments are him imitating The Godfather who said to “keep your friends close but your enemies closer.”

It’s disturbing to watch—and, quite frankly, seems to at least flirt with being a little idolatrous. But let’s be honest, it’s not always wrong. Trump does think strategically and in a multi-dimensional way. Is it possible that he’s playing some larger game here?

The possibilities are endless, but here’s one—if the forces who want these files covered up include the intelligence agencies of the Western world, the financial heavyweights, and others who have cards to play, it means there’s enormous pressure on Trump not to release these files—quite likely including threats. Would they try another assassination attempt? Crash the economy? Trigger a national security crisis? Take your pick.

In The Art of the Deal, Trump talks about the importance of looking for leverage in any negotiation. While there’s nothing particularly surprising about that, one line he wrote, all the way back in the 1980s, caught my eye—he said that sometimes leverage is hard to find, and you need to be creative in finding it.

Under our final scenario, let’s say he is facing the intense pressure not to release the files. Why wouldn’t he just ignore the topic and tell his Attorney General to do the same? If you haven’t noticed, there’s a lot of news to talk about with Trump—from tariffs to Big Beautiful Bills, to whatever he said about Rosie O’Donnell, or most anything else. If you want to avoid Epstein, just say nothing and let the news cycle roll on.

But he didn’t do that. Moreover, he and his people put on a ridiculous tap-dance that they had to know would go over as poorly as it has. Was it all a ruse to elicit precisely the reaction it did? Outrage from the base to serve as leverage against the pressure coming from the other side? To put Trump in a position where he would eventually have to tell the power brokers “I just have to release them. There’s no other choice.”

That’s a fairly dramatic theory. A more modified version is where there’s a broader investigation coming forth sometime between now and the end of the year, but it’s just not ready yet. And so Trump is slow-walking the files, buying for time, while still using grassroots anger as a leverage point.

I’d love for it to be true. It’s not implausible, given Trump’s approach to negotiations and leverage. But can we honestly say it’s the most likely possibility, given all the moving parts that we’re guessing at? I can’t get there.

What do you think? In my heart, I’m rooting for #4. But I’m betting on #3.

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