The Pros, Cons & (Much) Bigger Context of the Ukraine Mineral Deal

The U.S. and Ukraine signed the deal that triggered a famous Oval Office blowup a couple months ago. Let's unpack what it all means.

The deal is done. The rare-earth minerals deal that Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky was supposed to sign in the Oval Office on February 28—the one that famously blew up into a dispute between Zelenskyy, President Trump and J.D. Vance was signed this past week by Zelenskyy. Is this a good thing? We’ll break it down here thusly…

*A look at what we know of the actual terms of the deal
*Several other geopolitical developments that may (or may not) be connected to it.
*Some different scenarios for how this deal may (or may not) tie into those developments
*The bigger picture of relations between the U.S. and Russia

The Deal

This is very straightforward. Ukraine is rich in rare-earth minerals, which is vital to technological development. The United States will participate in a joint venture to mine those minerals, as a 50/50 partner.

Any future U.S. aid to Ukraine will be paid for out of Ukraine’s share of the fund. Furthermore, the United States did not provide a security guarantee to Ukraine (a promise to go to war on their behalf), which was the issue that triggered the dispute back on February 28.

The deal will last for 10 years.

If we look at this deal in a vacuum, absent any of the additional context that we’re about to consider, it’s advantages are access to the rare earth minerals, and it also effectively means that U.S. taxpayers are done underwriting Ukraine, due to any future aid being paid back Ukrainian profits in this joint venture.

The negatives are that, while Trump didn’t grant a security guarantee, this still gives the United States a vested interest in an area of the world where conflict abounds. While Trump may not act rashly, that doesn’t mean future presidents won’t. And even though taxpayers will no longer be paying for weapons shipped over to Ukraine, we would still be a participant in the war.

Based on all of that, I’m in the skeptic camp. Yes, there are notable improvements in this policy and that which was pursued by whomever ran the Biden White House. The fact U.S. taxpayers aren’t the ones paying for the war is no small thing.

The fact Trump and Vladimir Putin are talking while all this is unfolds is a huge thing—the two instances where the U.S. and Russia came closest to a nuclear exchange (the Cuban Missile Crisis and early 1980s situation that was a misunderstanding, well captured in the Reagan movie starring Dennis Quaid) came when communication lines between the White House and Kremlin were severed.

So, we’ve made big steps forward. We’re no longer directly bankrolling a war that risked escalating to a nuclear situation, and that’s no small thing.

That said, I do have higher expectations of President Trump’s term that simply producing better results than the dementia patient who preceded him and the blithering moron who served as his foil in the last election.

This deal, standing alone, doesn’t meet what I hoped for. But there are a lot of moving parts that provide a reason for hope.

Other Notable Developments

Almost in conjunction with the minerals deal came Tulsi Gabbard’s confirmation that the United States is investigating the biolabs in Ukraine. The existence of these biolabs was a major sore point with Russia, and a secondary cause of the war (with NATO expansion being the primary cause).

In fact, the existence of the biolabs was the latest example of something being called a conspiracy theory, then found out to be true, with no consequences for those who had lied and called it a conspiracy theory to begin with.

If we’re reading tea leaves, the fact the United States is investigating their existence suggests that the ongoing talks between Trump and Putin must be making some progress. In fact, the very existence of the mineral deal also suggests that—would Trump have made a 10-year deal with a country that he expects to be under continued siege?

Moreover, Russia doesn’t seem all that alarmed by the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister (their equivalent of the Secretary of State in the U.S.) said that it would be interesting to see how long Ukraine lasts now that they have to pay for their own war. Lavrov has previously made statements that Trump is the only leader in the West willing to talk about the root causes of the war, of which NATO expansion and the biolabs are prime examples.

All of this suggests to me that the minerals deal is just the first step in a larger game. If you’re a sports fan, think of your team making a free agent signing or trade very early in the offseason. You look at it think “Meh. We could do better.” And on the surface, that’s true. But you also know the offseason moves can’t be fully evaluated into everything is complete and we see the context. I believe that’s where we’re at here.

An Even Bigger Context

Our relationship with Russia is the key that picks the lock for a range of global issues. Russia can aid us in ongoing tensions regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Amidst the ongoing trade battles with China, it would be nice to at least not also be fighting with Russia. Furthermore, Russia is also rich in rare-earth minerals and has expressed a willingness to do business with the United States.

All of which is to say there is much to be gained by an ending of the ongoing hostility between Washington D.C. and Moscow. Trump and Putin seem to have a genuine rapport, even amidst tensions.

For those who still want to insist that Trump is “Putin’s puppet” and gleefully jump on any rapport between the two as proof of that, I can only say—knock yourself out. I won’t be apologizing for the fact that we now have an American president who seems to get along with the other foreign leader sitting on a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons.

But there are no shortage of challenges of getting the United States and Russia to that happy place. We talk about the domestic challenges Trump faces in forging a better relationship with Moscow—the NATO bureaucracy, the Military Industrial Complex, corporate media, the fact a substantial chunk of his own party still lives in 1985, and the fact that those on the other side, who should be supportive of this rapprochement are too blinded by hate to support any initiative of Trump’s.

That’s all obstacle enough—and we haven’t even considered that Putin might have his own internal opposition.

Russia is winning this war in Ukraine and could take the entire country. If Ukraine buys U.S. weapons it might take longer and come and greater cost, but—as we’ve argued in this space from the very beginning—this war has always been Russia’s to lose.

Putin, for all the media vilification that takes place in the United States, is considered middle-of-the-road in terms of Kremlin politics. The June 2023 coup attempt that took place was likely about internal frustration that he’s not moving aggressively enough to take all of Ukraine. There are also oligarchs in Russia who, just like in the United States, are raking in profits off this war.

But Putin has good reasons to prefer patience and restraint. He’s popular among the people—significantly more popular among Russians than any recent U.S. president has been with the American people. He has every incentive to negotiate an end to the war, to stop body bags from coming home, and maintain that popularity. He would be victorious, having taken key parts of eastern Ukraine and handing NATO a defeat. By not taking all of Ukraine, he would leave a strategic buffer zone between his own country and Europe in the event of future hostilities.

All of that is a pretty good deal for Putin if he can get it. But there is one problem. What if his own oligarchs don’t want to allow it? I’m not going to claim some deep insight into the Russian Deep State, but it seems fair to conjecture that one exists. And, as pointed out in this highly thoughtful X post, there’s probably people Putin can’t cross if he’s interested in staying in power—or alive.

How does this apply to Trump and U.S. policy? The price of oil.

Russia finances this war with oil profits. The high cost of gas we all dealt with under the previous White House stemmed from the high cost of oil. By starting to drill again, Trump began to reduce the per-barrel cost. He also just announced today that the Houthi terrorists, whose attacks have cut off shipping in the Suez Canal, have agreed to a ceasefire. Opening up shipping lanes helps Saudi Arabia, increases the oil supply, and leads to a reduction in the price.

That means Russia is no longer raking in money hand over fist selling oil. And the money to finance the war in Ukraine takes a hit. In turn, this gives Putin the leverage to go to his own oligarchs and tell them that a deal has to be made. The fact Trump, unlike anyone else in the West, is being reasonable, dealing with the root causes of the war, and acknowledging that Russia simply agreeing not to take over all of Ukraine (a reality he emphasized again this past weekend), makes it easier for Putin to come the table and sign a peace deal on a war he’s clearly winning.

All of this was laid out in even more detail in a brilliant article on X by Seth Levy. In that article it was pointed out that this strategy is a global version of what Trump did in buying Mar-a-Lago. His initial offer was rejected. He countered by buying all the land surrounding Mar-a-Lago, which impacted the property value, and created the conditions possible for the purchase. Is something similar happening here?

It has to be strongly emphasized that all of this is theoretical, from the “Putin vs. The Russian Deep State” theory to Trump using the price of oil to facilitate peace in Ukraine and reset the entire strategic order. But it’s reasonable speculation.

In addition to the similarity of the Mar-a-Lago tactics, Trump also made a cryptic remark at the end of April that “in about two weeks” he would find out if he could trust Putin. That could mean a lot of things—one of them being that there’s something to the theory laid out here.

I would also add that I’ve been deeply skeptical of the merits of the Yemen bombing campaign against the Houthis but allowed there were legitimate reasons. It’s similar to my reaction to the Ukraine mineral deal—skeptical but seeing potential benefits. Is it possible that both are part of a larger move towards a dramatic reset of the global strategic order with Russia?

The many members of this audience that are familiar with the messages of the Fatima apparitions of the Blessed Mother will need no persuading that Russia is the key that picks the lock, as central as that country was to the original message of 1917, and the subsequent papal consecrations that took place in 1984—and then again in 2022, after the current war with Ukraine broke out.

While October 13 is the date most associated with Fatima (The Miracle of the Sun), the second-most notable date connected with the apparitions is July 13, when its core prophecies were given. Suffice it to say, July 13 is now a date that will forever live in American history. If the connections I’m making are accurate, that makes the survival of Donald John Trump and the very existence his current presidential term, a part of that unfolding drama.

In a straight geostrategic sense, we are watching to see if the man who has been the most famous dealmaker in the world for a generation, can pull off, as Seth put it, the transaction of a lifetime with Putin and reset the global order. In other sense, however, maybe this very grand plan is actually just a small part of something even grander--the ultimate fulfillment of Fatima, which is the Triumph of Her Immaculate Heart.

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