Understanding The Battle Within The Republican Party

There are two very different political movements fighting under the GOP banner. Know how to identify them.

The Republican Party is going to win this coming November. They are going to take back the House. They are going to least hold even in the Senate against an unfavorable map and probably still take back the upper chamber. And unless something changes dramatically at the top of the Democratic Party—namely, finding a way to clear out both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris—the GOP is going to win the presidency in 2024.

But winning is not enough. It’s not just about the size and scope of the victory (although that does matter). It’s about what type of GOP candidate takes office. Right now there are effectively two separate Republican parties operating. Which one prevails in primaries throughout the first part of 2022 will tell us if the coming red wave is going to matter or if it’s just going to be more of the same.

THE TWO SIDES

Traditional Republicans

One the one side is what we’ll call the traditional Republican business class. They’re the ones who fit the stereotype—for better or for worse—of what most people think of where they hear the term “Republican.” They are the ones that effectively define the party’s brand.

This wing of the party is associated with a pro-business tax and regulatory policy. They have become associated with an expansionist foreign policy—notably the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the 20-year long occupation of Afghanistan that came to a brutal end this past summer.

Examples of this type of Republican include the Bush Family, the late John McCain, Bob Dole, Mitt Romney—frankly everyone who won a GOP presidential nomination between Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump.

This brand of Republicanism is often derisively branded as “RINO” (Republican In Name Only) by critics within the party. But even though I am one of those critics, this is really not a historically accurate moniker. In fact, this type of candidate is, at least from the perspective of a history that can be traced back as far as World War II—the real Republican.

Rising populists

There aren’t enough traditional Republicans out there to win elections. Really, how many people are both highly successful in business and have their political worldview built around that success? This class has plenty of people who want to run for office and more than enough money to bankroll them, but they need votes, and they need people willing to do the grunt work of campaigns.

Here’s where we introduce the populist wing of the GOP. These are mostly middle class people. They come from a variety of political angles. One is the pro-life movement (the angle where I fit in). Others are those concerned about immigration, the loss of manufacturing jobs (my secondary angle), or government spending.

The need to get tough on crime is another driving issue among populists within the Republican Party, particularly among working-class voters, who have begun to make up a larger chunk of this voting bloc. This most definitely includes racial minorities, with Hispanics in particular showing a sharp shift toward GOP populism and black men starting to do the same.  

THE LANDSCAPE

Challenges facing the populists

These disparate groups have disagreements. A very large number don’t consider themselves Republicans at all. Depending on their motivating issue, voters from this group went for both Barack Obama and Donald Trump at the presidential level. While supporting Trump, they have been willing to support Bernie Sanders in Democratic primaries.  

Why? The common thread in all of these candidates’ coalitions was deep dissatisfaction with the current state of politics and the feeling that which party wins really doesn’t matter.

There are several overarching factors that unite the populists. Perhaps the biggest one is a hard rejection of political correctness and the censorship that has come to follow. It’s a rejection of the notion that you can’t even talk about certain subjects because someone on a college campus might be offended. It’s a fatigue with having to be outraged every time someone says something inappropriate on social media.

In short, the populists are a group of basically normal people, who have different interests, but are tired of being pushed around by their so-called betters—whether they be traditional Republicans or Democrats.

The political class in both parties have been able to keep this potent voting bloc fractured. For example, when the Democratic Party embraces extremist abortion policies, they become anathema to a voter like me. Meanwhile, Republicans nominate someone who allows manufacturing jobs to be shipped overseas, thus making them anathema to a working class voter. All of us in this voting bloc go our separate ways, argue on social media over candidates none of us really like, and split our votes. What the traditional Republicans and left-wing Democrats have in common is they just trade off being in power, make money hand over fist and nothing ever really changes.

How Trump changed the game

Donald Trump’s political success came because he antagonized the traditional business class and put the entire populist voting bloc under his wing. That’s why he’s a threat.

Some pundits have suggested that the new populist bloc be called “Trump-licans” as a way of differentiating them from traditional Republicans. I’m not sure if I like that name, but it does underscore the reality that there are two very different camps operating under the Republican label.

This explains why so many traditional Republicans have reacted so strongly against Trump. It explains why people who have not typically voted with the GOP opted for Trump and find themselves more sympathetic to like-minded Republican candidates than they might have in the recent past.

Reliable polling bears this out. Recent work done by Richard Baris, a pollster who stands out from his contemporaries by actually being proven right on recent Election Days, recently ran a poll to measure both the attraction of Trump alongside that of a “generic Republican”. There was a clear advantage in favor of Trump. That advantage came from middle and working class voters, disproportionately Hispanic.

Cultural analogies

My wife and I are currently nearing the end of binge-watching Downtown Abbey, a six-season series about a great manor in England in the early 20th century. The traditional lords and countesses are portrayed alongside the servant class. In our modern-day context, the former are the traditional Republicans and the latter are the rising populists. The lords and countesses are generally good people with a genuine social conscience, with good personal relationships with the servants.

But, as we watch Season 6, it’s apparent that the servants are no longer willing to let their affection for their superiors on a personal level, stand in the way of a real reform effort that will give them a greater chance of long-term prosperity.

That’s a benign analogy. A more confrontational one would be It’s A Wonderful Life. The traditional Republican business class is represented by Henry F. Potter. Can anyone doubt that Old Man Potter would be shipping his jobs to China and paying pennies on the dollar in wages if this were a modern movie? George Bailey and his late father Peter are the populists. They believe in private property and reject socialism—but they want everyone to share the wealth a little more fairly.

Whether Downtown Abbey or It’s A Wonderful Life are the more accurate illustration of the current Republican divide depends on the people involved. In reality, both are probably accurate in different areas of the country. Some in the traditional business class is perfectly nice people, who simply don’t get the nature of the fight so many of us are in. Others would like to destroy us, or are at least indifferent to our destruction.

The year ahead

The fact that Joe Biden is such a monumental disaster means a candidate simply having an “R” after their name is in good shape in 2022. Not only does polling bear this out, but so does the more meaningful metric of voter registration. Back in 2006, as George W. Bush’s presidency imploded, people were lining up to vote Democratic. In 2022, they are lining up to vote Republican.

But if the Republican business class prevails in party primaries, it’s just going to be business as usual. It won’t be a win worth having. If the rising populists can start ousting the long-time leaders of the party, there is a chance for real and constructive change.

That means the first part of 2022 is where the political action is. The Republican primaries in gubernatorial and Senate races are going to be enormous. In key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Georgia and Arizona—among many others—the primaries will decide what type of Republican Party is going to win in November.

If it’s a rising multi-racial, populist coalition, then it will be a big win and one that will completely reshape American politics. If it’s a just few more corporate lawyers and Chamber of Commerce types, it will be business as usual. That’s what at stake between now and the fall, in primaries across the country.