There are a lot of reasons to love Ron DeSantis and to see him as a future president. But his time isn't here yet. This video breaks down why a presidential run would be political suicide.
Gov. DeSantis needs to stay in FL and lock that state up as a Republican stronghold for a generation. If he runs, it will just be a redux of what happened in WI with Walker running. The loss both undercuts him and fractures the base making easy for the Democrats to capture the governorship in the next election.
If the Republican leadership doesn't support Trump, this will embolden the Democrats to go after other Republican candidates in the same way. Will Trump win in 2024? Possibly. Would another Republican win in 2024? Not a chance. The electoral map just isn't there. There would be too many fractured states, too many with shenanigans, and too many Only Trumpers. I think that the Only Trumpers will be mad enough to stay home or just write Trump in as a protest vote.
I've tried to stay open to the possibility of DeSantis winning in November, as indicated in the video. But I do have to say the pollsters I respect the most, and who have the best track records agree with what is above. That is, they believe there's no guarantee Trump will win, but he's the only Republican with a chance given the realities of the electoral map. The pollsters also report that the "Only Trump" vote has risen drastically over the past several weeks, and the illegal arrest will only strengthen that.
I think people forget just how poorly GOP nominees have done at the presidential level since the end of the Cold War. 2004 is the only year the Republican candidate won the national popular vote, and that took GWB in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. Per the battleground states, Trump is the only Republican to have won the Trifecta of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And even if you accept the 2020 results at face value, he's still far closer in those states than a conventional Republican candidate. Before Trump, the GOP was at always the party at an Electoral College disadvantage because they couldn't win the Midwest and Rustbelt.
I also like the analogy to Walker. The only thing Walker's run for the presidency did was sabotage his reputation in Wisconsin and open the door to Evers in 2018. In fact, I personally know people from WI who liked Walker, but found it annoying when he ran for the White House, wondering who exactly was running the state. The everyday voter that doesn't marinate in politics doesn't appreciate it when the person they just elected as governor suddenly starts running for president.
Outstate WI tends to be rather loyal to someone that is seen as a home town candidate. Walker's presidential run was seen as something disloyal to their efforts to get him elected and then reelected during the recall. They wanted him to change WI not the Nation. This is true for more rural states -- the GOP tendency to run governors who have not finished what they have started doesn't' help them (and certain local governing choices can hurt them when contrary choices would be made in a different state just due to the local needs of that state).
The Only Trump vote doesn't need to be large to skuttle any other Republican's chances -- probably less than 2%. Never Trumpers are traded for Independents, but Only Trumpers is a pure loss and you cannot replace them with Independents.
A big problem is messaging right now. The WI Supreme Court vote was a messaging problem. It should not have been the case that Kelly lost and those constitutional amendments have passes so overwhelmingly (which are not just going to be ruled unconstitutional). That is an indicator of poor messaging and I can tell you that Kelly's messaging was ineffectual. He had to go all in on the Constitutional issue regarding abortion and he didn't. Lost the framing of the debate and lost the election.
Nice Dan!
Gov. DeSantis needs to stay in FL and lock that state up as a Republican stronghold for a generation. If he runs, it will just be a redux of what happened in WI with Walker running. The loss both undercuts him and fractures the base making easy for the Democrats to capture the governorship in the next election.
If the Republican leadership doesn't support Trump, this will embolden the Democrats to go after other Republican candidates in the same way. Will Trump win in 2024? Possibly. Would another Republican win in 2024? Not a chance. The electoral map just isn't there. There would be too many fractured states, too many with shenanigans, and too many Only Trumpers. I think that the Only Trumpers will be mad enough to stay home or just write Trump in as a protest vote.
I've tried to stay open to the possibility of DeSantis winning in November, as indicated in the video. But I do have to say the pollsters I respect the most, and who have the best track records agree with what is above. That is, they believe there's no guarantee Trump will win, but he's the only Republican with a chance given the realities of the electoral map. The pollsters also report that the "Only Trump" vote has risen drastically over the past several weeks, and the illegal arrest will only strengthen that.
I think people forget just how poorly GOP nominees have done at the presidential level since the end of the Cold War. 2004 is the only year the Republican candidate won the national popular vote, and that took GWB in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. Per the battleground states, Trump is the only Republican to have won the Trifecta of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And even if you accept the 2020 results at face value, he's still far closer in those states than a conventional Republican candidate. Before Trump, the GOP was at always the party at an Electoral College disadvantage because they couldn't win the Midwest and Rustbelt.
I also like the analogy to Walker. The only thing Walker's run for the presidency did was sabotage his reputation in Wisconsin and open the door to Evers in 2018. In fact, I personally know people from WI who liked Walker, but found it annoying when he ran for the White House, wondering who exactly was running the state. The everyday voter that doesn't marinate in politics doesn't appreciate it when the person they just elected as governor suddenly starts running for president.
Outstate WI tends to be rather loyal to someone that is seen as a home town candidate. Walker's presidential run was seen as something disloyal to their efforts to get him elected and then reelected during the recall. They wanted him to change WI not the Nation. This is true for more rural states -- the GOP tendency to run governors who have not finished what they have started doesn't' help them (and certain local governing choices can hurt them when contrary choices would be made in a different state just due to the local needs of that state).
The Only Trump vote doesn't need to be large to skuttle any other Republican's chances -- probably less than 2%. Never Trumpers are traded for Independents, but Only Trumpers is a pure loss and you cannot replace them with Independents.
A big problem is messaging right now. The WI Supreme Court vote was a messaging problem. It should not have been the case that Kelly lost and those constitutional amendments have passes so overwhelmingly (which are not just going to be ruled unconstitutional). That is an indicator of poor messaging and I can tell you that Kelly's messaging was ineffectual. He had to go all in on the Constitutional issue regarding abortion and he didn't. Lost the framing of the debate and lost the election.