The Coming Split Between The Republican Party & Big Business
What changes in political financing mean for the future
In a previous article, I outlined the current battle that is going on for the direction of the Republican Party, and how there are two very different camps operating under the GOP banner. This has been true for at least thirty years, but the arrival of Donald Trump has taken the festering wounds and laid them bare for all to see. At its core, the battle is between the traditional Republican business class (which either hates Trump or is at least ready to move on from his entire movement) and a new populist class, which supports either Trump or Florida governor Ron DeSantis.
Now comes a terrific video put out by The Federalist that essentially confirms what was written here. The flow of money from the business class is changing direction. The Chamber of Commerce, which once reliably gave its money to Republican candidates, is now close to being a 50/50 split. And my guess is that few—if any—of the GOP candidates the Chamber bankrolls would be acceptable to the Trump wing of the party.
The implications of this change in political financing can be far-reaching…
*The first one isn’t so much an implication for the future as what it tells us about the present. Trump-backed candidates are not hurting for money. You can raise just as much in small individual donations online—or at least more than enough to run a credible campaign. Remember, you don’t need more money than your opponent—Trump was vastly outspent by Hillary Clinton in 2016—you just need enough to be visible and credible. You can get that without going hand in hat to the business class.
*Republican candidates not beholden to the Chamber can take a freer hand in getting control of illegal immigration. The business class loves illegal immigration. They can get away with paying far less. Even a business that doesn’t directly hire illegals can use their presence and increased labor market to lower wages overall. This is always done, of course, under the auspices of being in love with the American Dream and immigration. But it’s about money. And it’s why Republicans have always failed to act on the southern border.
*Republican candidates not beholden to the Chamber can take a harder line on China. The business class sees huge economic opportunity in the Middle Kingdom. Which there is. If you don’t care about exploiting people working in terrible conditions and taking advantage of environmental laws that are virtually non-existent, you can make a lot of money by moving operations into China and then selling back into the United States. At least for as long as the U.S. still has a middle class. A populist candidate can fight for trade restrictions on China and starting to tie their access to the American market to how the Chinese people are treated.
These twin issues—trade and illegal immigration—are the core of why the Republican business class couldn’t stand Trump. Those in the business class that are tied to the defense industry (i.e., the Cheney Family) have further reason to be angry because Trump stopped the never-ending foreign intervention that defined Republican foreign policy under the Bush and made billions for defense contractors.
I highly recommend watching the entire video. It’s a good discussion, including an examination of what this means for the Democrats. But if you need only sentence to sum the video up, it’s this—The political world is changing and our previous perceptions of each party have to get out the window. What will replace it is undefined. That’s what the 2022 elections, especially Republican primaries, will be about. Okay, that was about three sentences. But it sums it up.